A recession is out there somewhere, just probably not yet.

In the midst of what may or may not be a more substantial downturn in global stock markets, there’s a lot of fluff in the financial media. Most of it is just plain guessing. My take, for what it’s worth, is that a cautious approach is warranted but we don’t really know what will happen. The current downturn hasn’t become large enough to convince most investors to be afraid, and remember there’s always (unfortunately) the prospect of an instantaneous Fed bailout. Our current Fed doesn’t seem to behave the same as it did a decade ago, which is good and healthy. Looking a bit longer term, the yield curve seldom lies. What’s it saying right now? Read this:  https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/next-recession-update-yield-curve-doesnt-lie?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recession%20dashboard%20update&utm_content=macroeconomic%20research