Will our international holdings finally outperform in the coming decade? Vanguard says…

Buying and holding international stocks has not helped our returns in the past few years. The US has outperformed tremendously. Vanguard says that’s about to change. This is from November but we should remember as we go forward. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/27/international-stocks-will-beat-us-stocks-over-next-decade-vanguard.html

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The Andresen & Associates 2018 Annual Review

2018 started nicely enough. But then it turned stormy. Almost all of our major indices were down in 2018. Most of the chaos happened in the last few months. Paradoxically the US economy, and most of the global economy, continued to boom in 2018. U.S.  corporations delivered astonishing growth, with earnings up some 20.5% according to FactSet. This was fueled in part by deregulation and 2017 tax changes. Job growth was similarly nothing short of...

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2019 will be a wild card.

If we stay focused on our long term investment plan, as we should, then 2019 is yet another year to be invested. In the short run, if we consider the year 2019 by itself, it’s scary. We will face the potential for big surprises, lots of volatility, and perhaps financial market declines. It’s also entirely possible that once again, we’ll all muddle by, and 2019 will be very profitable. The reality is that nobody really...

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Somehow we all muddle by…

One of my mantras in my investing career has been “Somehow we all muddle by”. In other words, the millions of people in the financial markets usually (but not always) make markets repair themselves, recover, and eventually reach new highs. This last week has been a classic example: last week the chairman of the Federal Reserve boosted stock markets in 30 seconds by hinting that interest rates might not continue to rise. Yesterday President Trump...

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Are higher interest rates becoming a long term trend?

This study suggests that rates could go higher. That’s tough on real estate, hard on bonds and perhaps, short term, tough on stock markets as well. To put it in context, we’ve had historically absurd low interest rates for years now. To quote this well-written essay: “Bottom Line: Incoming data continues to support the Fed’s basic forecast that rates need to climb higher. I think the data increasingly supports the case that rates need to...

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Time to be cautious! Oh, wait, we’re already cautious…

As the accompanying article by Mark Hulburt points out, the emotional consequences of downside losses in a bear stock market are often greater than investors predict. As a result, these investors are usually reluctant to “buy cheap’ in the midst of a chaotic downturn. An even greater motivation is that bear market losses are..well, losses! Nobody enjoys that. With stock markets currently at all time highs, it’s time to be extra careful, even though we...

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Caution, yes. Fear, no. Predictions of financial doom are seldom worth the worry.

“The end is nigh!” I’ve heard this lots over the years. So far it hasn’t been true. Although there have been hard times, we’ve always come back. Yes, there IS an awesome amount of debt out there. Yes, a downturn is inevitable, although the statistics aren’t saying that it’s imminent. And, yes, we’ll almost certainly recover from that downturn. So why do experts make such predictions? Because they are very successful at attracting attention. In...

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The Asian stock market downturn is probably not permanent.

Yes,Asian stock markets are being damaged by the nascent trade wars. At some point they are going to be bargains. My thought is that due to Asian growth and American confusion, the 21st Century is possibly going to be the Asian Century. That may happen with lots of volatility and angst. With that in mind, we’re already buying more, in small amounts and diversified. Our expectation in these high risk venues is to outperform the...

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Famed Economist Robert Shiller Sees Upside In Overvalued, High Risk Market. What’s An Investment Advisor To Do?

Happy Friday! As the world is being battered by two great storms (Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas and Super Typhoon Mangkhut in South Asia), our own U.S. stock market is overvalued, high risk, and climbing ever higher! But Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, who has successfully predicted past market debacles, feels that the stock market could still go a lot higher! So we are maintaining a highly diversified, somewhat conservative allocation, but we are NOT...

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Some lessons from the collapse of cryptocurrencies.

Crypto looked like a bubble from very early on. It may still be essentially an institutional scam. But who knows what the future may bring? And who knows how blockchain technology might transform the world? Meanwhile we’re staying away from the frenzy.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-12/crypto-s-crash-just-surpassed-dot-com-levels-as-losses-reach-80?cmpid=BBD091218_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=180912&utm_campaign=markets

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