Valuations

Valuations

I’m watching the China exchange traded fund, symbol PEK, which is up about 16% in one day, having fallen close to 40% in one month. I’m also looking at valuation statistics for the United States stock markets. The Value Line P/E is 19.1%, which is historically modestly overvalued. The median yield is 2.1%, again modestly overvalued. The Value Line Median Appreciation Potential is 35%, which is historically profoundly overvalued. These statistics can stay in the “overvalued” zone for years. My perception is that they have stayed high for so long due to artificially low interest rates. They continue to suggest, however, that the possibility of an eventual downturn, perhaps years in the future, is out there. Most of our portfolios are diversified and relatively cautious. At the moment, we’ll continue to stay conservative. We don’t know what will really happen in the short run. Eventually, if and when bargains emerge, we’ll do some buying.