Panicky Markets

Strange days indeed. We appear to be right for the moment about gold and the stock markets. The entire situation could be erased and reversed by central bank action. Read article

Read more

Staying the course

Now that we seem to be experiencing the much-awaited stock market correction, we have a new crop of doomsayers preaching that the end of the (financial) world is nigh. Of course I can’t say they are wrong, any more than I can say that a catastrophic earthquake won’t happen. However, history suggests that the more financial catastrophes are predicted by the experts, the more moderate our market declines are likely to be. Why does this...

Read more

A Bear Market?

We’ve been expecting this for three years. But as I’ve learned many many times, probability is not certainty. We are going into this very diversified, so we should have the opportunity to grab some bargains if a downturn really evolves. Read article

Read more

Energy Bargains

Currently the stock markets continue their trend of overvaluation which has defined the past three years. Overvaluation doesn’t mean that a downturn is imminent. On the other hand, it implies that the stock markets are vulnerable. So we need to stay diversified, and we’ll all muddle by. This indicator has been useless for the past three years, so selling out and running away may not be viable choices. Meanwhile, there are genuine bargains in the...

Read more

The Sequoia Blowout

Read article As the attached article explains, Sequoia Fund (symbol SEQUX) has always been an investment we have been proud to own. Over the decades it has delivered above-market results which have been unusually durable. The management of this mutual fund has delivered superb, consistent, even admirable management. That may not entirely be the case now, as documented by the attached article. A few months ago, this mutual fund began to fade as its over-allocation...

Read more

The Recent Stock Market Turbulence Hasn’t Decided Much, Yet

Since 2008 we’ve been trapped in a global slow-growth economic recovery. In an effort to boost economic growth in the face of rising debt levels, demographic changes, and the corrosive lingering financial insecurities of the Financial Panic of 2008, central banks have poured money supply into the global financial system. This has had several results. It has perhaps averted a global depression. Perhaps it has allowed economic inefficiencies and misallocations to survive when they should...

Read more

Market Decline

Global stock markets in steep decline If our portfolios are diversified, then today’s declining stock prices represent the beginning of an opportunity. We will take advantage of the coming days to examine the performance of our mutual funds and “weed the garden” of mutual funds which appear to be faltering. If the market decline continues, we’ll begin buying. Patience…we’ve been waiting for this.  

Read more

Warning signs

One challenge now is that this bull market in stocks has been replete with false warnings of imminent downturns. Thus this warning indicator is likely to be largely ignored. Stay diversified. Read article  

Read more

What NOT to own

Quote from a mutual fund manager speaking today; “A large part of investment management is the act of omission: the decision to NOT own the 90% of available investments which aren’t going to succeed.”

Read more