“Is college worth the cost?” Check out this graph.

I am in complete agreement that technical education is often as good as a college degree. Most important is to embrace the idea of some sort of education to mazimize our families’ earnings potential. In other words, in general, learning skills via education is often a great choice, anecdotes aside. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/09/06/workers-with-low-levels-of-education-still-havent-recovered-from-the-great-recession/?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=65767273

Read more

Stock Market Storm Ahead? Goldman Sach’s Indicator Is Blinking Red

Goldman Sachs has released a report which warns of a potential stock market decline ahead. We don’t really know what will happen. Nevertheless I feel that it’s prudent to stay diversified and allocated to a relatively conservative spectrum of mutual funds. As the new Goldman Sachs report notes, “many investors are wondering how long the economic cycle and bull market can last, and what type of conditions could follow. The difficulty in answering these questions...

Read more

Should we postpone Social Security until the maximum age?

It’s always a judgement call, even a guess, but if we are in good health and able to work, and there isn’t a giant nest egg or inheritance waiting, it’s often better to postpone drawing social security until the maximum age, which is 70. The reason for this is that benefits rise as we postpone. If we live longer than average, our decisions should (hopefully) pay off. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-people-who-claim-social-security-early-often-live-to-regret-it-2018-09-04?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Read more

What Putin means for our investments.

Consider Putin’s efforts to rebuild the Russian empire from the standpoint of organized crime seeking to optimize itself financially. The amount of disinformation, hate-baiting, distraction, and violence is astonishing, but all that covers up an even more awsome level of mindful corruption. I believe that Putin intends to literally corrupt the entire western financial system for financial gain and political control. Is the Putin organization willing to destroy the financial underpinnings of the west? Probably...

Read more

Diversification and caution are key in emerging markets!

Here’s an insightful study by Oppenheimer concerning the differences between India and China as investment venues. While emerging markets represent some of the fastest growing economies in the world, they also contain a lot of political risk, currency risk, and financial opacity. Often we can’t clearly see what is really happening! That means we can’t always recognize true bargains, so we can’t make well-supported decisions. Nevertheless, over the long term, carefully-targeted emerging market investments have...

Read more

Why intergenerational wealth is as rare as platypuses.

It really IS possible to blow a billion dollar fortune. In fact it’s probable. Study how the Vanderbilts lost the unloseable fortune: drama, lack of diversification, and dissipation. You will see why it’s so hard to master intergenerational wealth. https://www.forbes.com/sites/natalierobehmed/2014/07/14/the-vanderbilts-how-american-royalty-lost-their-crown-jewels/#33c197bf353b

Read more

Something’s happening here. What it is..

My last entry on January 30th, 2018, suggested that US stock markets were potentially overvalued. Apparently others agreed with that assessment, because early in February, in the face of rising interest rates, American stock markets dropped (almost) 10%. At that point I was guessing…a perfect word for it…that the financial markets would continue to decline to more reasonable levels. However, I chose to do no trading because I wasn’t confident. Good choice. This week, U.S....

Read more

Successful stock market indicator warns of trouble ahead!!! (yada, yada)

As the accompanying article spells out, the Value Line Manager’s Appreciation Potential statistic is now 20%. This suggests that the stock market is more overvalued than it has been since 1969. Read the article here. The Value Line Appreciation Statistic has been giving off overvaluation signals since 2013. It’s been screaming of imminent disaster since 2015. THIS IS WHY we have been so conservatively allocated. Yet, in hindsight, our allocations have been too conservative because...

Read more

Focus on the long term

I was reminded of that today when a client called up and asked what return he could expect on his investments. I said we really can’t predict, but a long term average of 7% has historically been both attractive and doable, with discipline. We really can’t say what the future will bring. What does “discipline” mean? To some degree it means that we ignore the day to day noise and focus on long term realities....

Read more