What the bond market just told us.

When the interest rates for short term Treasuries is higher than that of long term Treasuries, that’s “an inversion of the yield curve”. All inversions do NOT lead to recessions but all recessions are signaled by inversions. It took about 28 months before the recession predicted by a 2005 inversion emerged in 2008. What’s important: we are in the late stages of a delightfully long economic upturn. A normal, natural, and temporary recession is out there somewhere, and possibly will happen within the next three years. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge