Last week we were in San Francisco listening to a presentation by Schwab’s chief economist, Liz Ann Saunders. My takeaway was that the economy is not thriving because of
a. excessive debt in the system.
The excessive debt may or may not have prevented a depression but its legacy is gargantuan payments to keep from defaulting. These will only become larger as interest rates rise.
The complexity is due to technological change and off-the-charts over-regulation. Distractions have grown and regulatory uncertainty is rife.
What will happen? We don’t know. Here’s bond guru Bill Gross’ latest comment.